Business Model

Disrupted Industries: Auto Insurance

Written by Rick Cloyd.

The rise of autonomous vehicles will disrupt many industries, and create opportunities, as well. Of the 33 industries identified by CB Insights Research, here are the top ten (11) industries likely to be disrupted:

RANKINDUSTRYREASON
1Auto InsuranceFewer collisions
2Auto RepairsFewer repairs
3Professional Drivers & TruckingDriverless vehicles
4Hotels & MotelsSleep in your car
5AirlinesOn-demand cars for shorter trips
6Auto PartsFewer repairs
7aTaxi & Ride Hailing ServicesPurchase their own vehicles
7bRental Car CompaniesLosing share to ride hailing apps
8Public TransportationBetter than fixed route transit
9Parking Garages and LotsContinuous movement, less parking
10Fast FoodFewer impulse stops

“Despite some challenges, many believe driverless cars will make automobile transportation a whole lot safer, and potentially reduce the number of auto accidents in the long run. While this might save insurers money on payouts in the near future, demand for insurance could ultimately decrease as the risk of a car crash drops. In anticipation of this shift, some insurers are rolling out usage-based insurance policies (UBIs), which charge consumers based on how many miles they drive and how safe their driving habits are.” – “33 Industries Other Than Auto That Driverless Cars Could Turn Upside Down”, CB Insights Research, Sept. 20, 2018

Here are the ten largest auto insurers in the U.S., according to the Nerd Wallet website. They account for about 72% of the $231 billion in annual U.S. auto insurance premiums. State Farm and Allstate are based in Illinois.

RANKCOMPANYSOMREVENUE $B
1State Farm18.1%$41.8
2Geico12.8%$29.6
3Progressive9.8%$22.8
4Allstate9.3%$21.4
5USAA5.7%$13.2
6Liberty Mutual5.0%$11.6
7Farmers4.5%$10.4
8Nationwide3.2%$7.3
9Travelers1.9%$4.4
10American Family1.9%$4.4

The existential threat of new entrants is significant:

“Since self-driving cars will only be commercialized once Self-Driving Car Manufacturers have proved that they are safer than human-driven cars, at that point in time, SDCMs will be in a position to compute the exact probabilities of accidents and their cost because they will have all the data in their data centers.

“Most importantly, SDCMs will be able to offer car insurance from the get-go as soon as they market self-driving cars because they will be able to offer it at a much lower price than traditional insurance companies. SDCMs will need this cost reduction to help offset the additional cost of the autonomous driving equipment in order to reduce the total cost of ownership of their product.” – “Prediction: Self-Driving Car Manufacturers Will Own the Car Insurance Business”, Forbes.com, Bernard Fraenkel, July 2, 2018

Analysis

The major auto insurance companies know this disruption is coming. State Farm’s website has a page dedicate to the issue, with some very comprehensive government and industry links.

There are at least 46 auto insurance companies in the U.S., and the vast majority are mutual companies owned by their policy holders. There are four publicly-traded auto insurers: GEICO (Berkshire Hathaway), Progressive, Allstate and its subsidiary eSurance, and Farmers (Zurich Insurance Group). In addition to auto insurance, most sell a range of other consumer and business insurance coverage.

The two “pure play” public firms are Progressive and Allstate. At current market prices, the market cap of these two is equal to about $1.43 for every $1.00 in annual premiums. As the AV market starts to impact the industry, it will have implications for premium revenue, stock valuations, insurance company investment portfolios, advertising spending and industry employment.

In July, 2015, a Deutsche Bank financial analyst downgraded Progressive, saying:

“We believe the concurrent rise of instant ridesharing and autonomous vehicles presents real questions as to whether there will even be an auto insurance industry as we know it in 20 years, what percentage of cars on the road will be essentially accident-free in 10 years and whether to acknowledge in just 5 years that this isn’t some ‘George Jetson’ fantasy.”

Disclaimer: This article was based on publicly-available source materials we believe to be accurate. Any content not clearly attributed to its original source is unintentional.

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